Nonfarm payrolls from ADP (Oct): 239K.

Nonfarm payrolls from ADP (Oct): 239K.
Photo by Mailchimp / Unsplash

Forecast: 195K. The US labor market is on fire, which means the Fed will keep raising rates. The market expects a 0.75% hike today.

Although the data is not that critical. As ADP notes, the increase was mostly at the expense of newly hired workers whose paychecks did not rise. And this means that the threat of rising inflation is small.

At the same time, the main increase in new employment occurred in low-paying jobs: bartenders and waiters. In other areas, on the contrary, employment is declining.

To summarize: The U.S. economy is feeling good so far. Maybe a deep recession can be avoided.